Datos y analítica

The Average Says You're Fine

Ten places, one in five does not turn up, so take twelve bookings — the average says 9.6 arrive and 9.6 is under ten. That is exactly right, and it is the wrong number to look at: twelve bookings is over capacity on 27.49% of days. Thirteen is a coin toss at 50.17%. Ten is never over and leaves 2.00 places empty. The average is a fine estimate of arrivals; it simply does not answer the question being asked, which is about the tail. The two rules of thumb also disagree with each other — 'add the no-show rate' says twelve, 'divide by the show-up rate' says thirteen — and neither states the risk it is accepting. This page states it, then asks the only question that can be answered: how often are you willing to be over? At a 10% tolerance the answer here is eleven bookings, over on 8.59% of days with 1.29 places expected empty.

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Este producto esta hecho para el mercado: Sudáfrica.

Datos y analítica

Salons, barbershops, clinics, studios and anyone taking bookings against fixed capacity, and the managers who have to justify an overbooking rule.

Cómo funciona

  1. Enter your places, your measured no-show rate, and how often you are willing to be over.
  2. Compare the two rules of thumb — and the risk each one silently accepts.
  3. Read the largest booking count that stays inside your tolerance.
  4. Look at the whole table: empty places against turned-away customers is the trade you are making.

Qué obtienes

  • Tells you how often you'll actually end up over capacity at a given booking level — not just the average number of no-shows — so overbooking becomes a chosen risk instead of a guess.

Captura de pantalla

Detalles técnicos

Estándar10.99 USD · 1500 solicitudes · licencia de 31 días · pago único · acceso de 31 días
Pro21.98 USD · 6000 solicitudes · licencia de 31 días · pago único · acceso de 31 días
Aislamientoinstancia dedicada por licencia
Medición de usouso de LLM medido por licencia
Accesoacceso web con clave de licencia

Como configurar y usar

  1. Compra la licencia — tu clave (lic_...) aparece en la pagina del pedido y en tu correo.
  2. Inicia sesion en app.synoriaai.com con tu clave de licencia.
  3. Sin instalacion — el producto funciona en el navegador, en tu instancia aislada.
  4. Enter your capacity, the expected no-show rate, and how often you are willing to be over capacity.
  5. Click 'Calculate' to see the two common rules of thumb and their over-capacity probabilities.
  6. Review the suggested booking count that stays within your tolerance, along with its exact over-capacity percentage.
  7. Check the verdict line to see the expected arrivals and confirm the result matches your risk preference.

Preguntas frecuentes

Is my data safe?

Yes, all calculations happen in your browser. No data is sent to any server, and nothing is stored.

What does this tool not do?

It does not account for correlated arrivals (e.g., parties, weather, holidays), so real over-capacity risk may be higher than shown. It also does not merge risk and cost into one recommendation.

Why do the two rules of thumb give different results?

They use different arithmetic—adding the no-show rate versus dividing by the show-up rate—so they yield different booking counts and over-capacity probabilities. The tool shows both for comparison.

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